Wednesday, January 9, 2008

The Devil Wears Fake Prada

As any of the 683,200 members of Facebook's "Stop Hillary Clinton: One Million Strong AGAINST Hillary" can tell you, there is still a ways to go towards achieving the ultimate goal. I suppose for those people, it would be 316, 800 more members and a lot more work now that the Clinton machine has reared its ugly head in New Hampshire, clutching victory from the jaws of defeat. This was especially surprising considering that pre-election polls suggested Obama would win by 7 points or more. "How," you might ask, "does this happen?" Well probably the same way they seemed to get things wrong over and over again 8 years ago when the pollsters made more mistakes than
Young Swole did in his 2008 NCAA Football predictions.

So did Hillary's eleventh-hour tears save her? The possibility that Obama or Edwards supporters realized at the last moment that Hillary was a better choice? No one can say for sure, but my own personal opinion is of some other forces at work. Never before has a major party fielded two candidates that have the ability to polarize the nation like Hillary and Obama do. The feelings amongst the electorate that a woman or an african-american man might have a legitimate shot at becoming the next President are, in my humble opinion, enough to drive first-time and non-traditional democratic voters to the polls in the hopes of boosting (or preventing) the chances these candidates have for success.

In terms of the message they present, I think people are legitimately hungry for a different tone and mindset in Washington. Many people have touched on this fact, but it still bears repeating, that Obama gives the people something to root for, rather than just something to rally against. However, certain positions of his, like outright opposition to the war in Iraq, might give people reasons to worry about the job he would do as President. That, coupled with a "lack of experience," real or imagined, might persuade his support to erode in favor of a "safer" candidate like Hillary, who actually takes stronger positions on the subjects of foreign policy and national security.

But with all the curves that the road to the White House has already taken, only one thing is certain: we are in for one exciting ride.


Hillary Clinton - 3:1
Barack Obama - 4:1
Mike Huckabee - 4:1
John McCain - 5:1
Rudy! Rudy! Rudy! - 5:1
Mitt Romney - 8:1
John Edwards - 12:1
Dennis Kucinich - 12,000,000:1

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